The spread of the corona virus outbreak that has infected more than 100 countries is a real threat to the global economy. These conditions have certainly deepened the period of economic collapse in the Asia-Pacific region. The S&P report revealed that a number of countries would feel the impact of the corona virus outbreak more seriously, including Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Because the tourism sector of the four countries accounted for nearly 10% of gross domestic product (GDP). The country's biggest tourism sector contribution comes from Chinese tourists.
In line with the S&P report, Bank Indonesia (BI) projects that world economic growth will be below 3%. Previously, the central bank predicted global economic growth would be 3% this year and 3.4% next year. However, BI was forced to correct global economic growth following the spread of an increasingly unstoppable corona virus outbreak, and it cannot be predicted when it will end. What is the prediction of Indonesia's economic growth? Apparently, the BI is still optimistic that the Indonesian economy perched at levels above 5%, where improvements are predicted to occur in the final quarter of the year. With notes, all BI and government policies can be implemented right on target.
Is it because of optimistic factors that Indonesia's economic growth can still be above the 5% BI version, so the government does not feel the need to take action lockdown as a number of countries have done in response to the corona virus outbreak? Simply, lockdown can be interpreted as restrictions on access to and from an area or restrictions on daily activities. Until when lockdown enforced? Depending on how critical a problem is depends on the government's policy.
Before the government takes policy lockdown, it must be considered carefully the impact. On the positive side, the government can control and handle the corona virus outbreak more optimally. However, the negative side also lurks, for example the emergence of public anxiety so that it can trigger panic buying for basic needs. If the stock of basic needs is running low, scarcity can occur which triggers price increases. The banking world is also vulnerable to being affected lockdown because it has the potential to make people withdraw their funds from banks. If that happens, it will disrupt banking liquidity, which will endanger the economy.
From the economic side, policy lockdown it will have quite serious negative impacts. Suppose Jakarta and its surroundings are stated lockdown, economist Bhima Yudhistira believes Indonesia could be hit by an economic crisis. Can it be that bad? The economic researcher from the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) argued that 70% of the movement of money in the national economy in Jakarta and its surroundings, would be very risky if economic activity was paralyzed. In addition, the supply of basic materials for Jakarta residents will be hampered because so far the supply is from outside. The rate of inflation will increase by 6% considering that Jakarta accounts for 20% of the national inflation rate. The solution, without lockdown can also overcome corona virus outbreaks such as those taken by Singapore by limiting activities in public spaces as one way.
However, even if the government has to take a policy lockdown then the key must be carefully prepared. The government must not implement measures half-measures lockdown . Ensuring public security is guaranteed, in this case health and physical security as well as financial security. There must be stimulus from the government to help community groups whose purchasing power is eroded. Ensuring that every community has the same opportunity to obtain basic needs at affordable prices.
Regarding financial security, a policy is needed to free the community from temporary burdens, such as routine installments for temporary mortgages. The government must prepare qualified medical personnel with adequate equipment and facilities. If not prepared properly, victims of the corona virus outbreak cannot be overcome and the economy is getting messy.