Future of the CDU
What's next in the CDU? Does Friedrich Merz win? And what happens in Thuringia? Answers to the most important questions
Who wins the power struggle in the CDU?
Armin Laschet has a good chance. He has remained under cover so far, but is showing all of his ambitions. The Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia has proven that he can win an election in a large federal state. This is a great advantage in the CDU, which is focused on acquiring and maintaining power. Also important: at a federal party conference, he knew the votes of the numerous delegates from NRW behind him.
And the hype about Friedrich Merz?
The Sauerland, who earned a lot of money on the BlackRock board of directors and floats in for events in his own small aircraft, is that Longing figure of many conservatives – and that of the Springer newspapers. Merz is a good speaker, very convinced of himself, liberal in the market and close to business. In December 2018, he narrowly lost to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in the fight for the CDU chairmanship. Merz let sprinkle this week, he competes "either way". Conclusion: You can count on him.
Health Minister Jens Spahn, who also strives for higher things and who says he is willing to "take responsibility", has more of a role as an ambitious outsider. In 2018 he finished third behind Kramp-Karrenbauer and Merz.
Is there an insider tip?
Markus Söder. The CSU boss has so far been out of the game. But he leaves no doubt that the CSU – and therefore he – has a say in the chancellor's candidacy. Powerful enough to reach for the office himself, he would be. Söder, who knocked the CDU delegates off their chairs at a party speech last November, is currently presenting himself as a modern, eco-friendly conservative. He could change his mind depending on how things were going. Because: A dog is nice.
When will the CDU clarify all of this?
Kramp-Karrenbauer actually wanted to make the decision about chairmanship and candidacy at the regular CDU party conference in December. In the past few days, however, it has been possible to see the power of the outgoing chairman eroding. CSU country group leader Alexander Dobrindt called their schedule "absurd", many important people saw it similarly, such as the Hesse Volker Bouffier or faction leader Ralph Brinkhaus.
A variant would therefore be a special party conference before the summer break, which, for example, Saxony-Anhalt's CDU state leader Holger Stahlknecht would like. But there were also voices calling for serenity. President of the Bundestag Wolfgang Schäuble, for example, warned that the CDU should not be driven by the media. So nothing is decided yet.
Is there a road show for applicants?
When it came to Merkel's successor to the CDU chairmanship in 2018, the three applicants toured the republic for weeks and introduced themselves to the grassroots at regional conferences. Such a process – or a member survey – would be in the interest of Friedrich Merz. The logic: the more base, the more Merz.
Important Union people are against it. CDU bodies are reluctant to chat about important decisions. There is also concern that weeks of competition could torpedo the unity of the Union. In any case, the decision ultimately lies with a party congress.
What role does Angela Merkel play?
Merkel makes no move to resign prematurely. Why too? She is the elected chancellor, the most popular politician in the Union, and she has promised to rule until 2021. In the second half of the year, Germany will also take over the EU Council Presidency – a nice additional task for the Chancellor.
On Monday, she emphasized that she wanted to accompany the selection process together with Kramp-Karrenbauer. That sounds like Kramp-Karrenbauer's successor has to deal with being the chairman and candidate under Merkel. It is not easy. Kramp-Karrenbauer also failed to get through with her messages because the party presidency and the chancellorship were not in one hand.
What does that mean for the grand coalition?
She's probably going on, on and on. The CDU and CSU seem to want to continue the coalition until 2021. The same can be seen in the SPD. Carsten Schneider, Parliamentary Managing Director of the SPD parliamentary group, emphasized on Wednesday with a view to Merkel: “She has the support from us until the end of the legislative period. And I think she does it well too. "
However, there could be trouble between a new CDU chairman and Merkel. Merz has open old bills with her because she pushed him out of the post of parliamentary leader in 2002.
What's next in Thuringia?
The left Bodo Ramelow wants one renewed prime minister election compete. "The condition of everything must be, it must not depend on AfD votes," he said. An effective government could then ensure orderly new elections.
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The Left Party wants at least four members of the CDU or FDP Ramelow to vote in the first ballot. The FDP has already refused. The CDU offers to abstain in the third ballot and to help Ramelow indirectly in office. However, there is a risk that AfD Ramelow could vote in the first ballot. Then he could not accept the choice.
Mike Mohring wants to withdraw from the top party of the Thuringian CDU after the election debacle. On Friday, he announced that he would also leave the office of head of state.
The DGB and the alliance #unteilbar call for one on Saturday Demonstration in Erfurt on. Under the motto "#Nichtmituns: No pact with fascists – never and nowhere!" Pressure should be put on the democratic parties to create stable conditions as quickly as possible.